Kuwaiti Oil Minister reportedly says OPEC won’t increase production until prices hit $100/barrel

June 11, 2009 at 10:25 pm

(Source: Autoblog, Bloomberg & ThisDay)

America might get most of its oil from Canada, but the moves that Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) makes still reverberate here. Thus, a statement by the Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Abdullah al-Sabah to reporters yesterday probably won’t help decrease domestic gasoline prices any time soon. OPEC’s al-Sabah said that the organization will not consider increasing production until the price of a barrel of oil reaches $100.

Crude oil traded in New York has climbed almost 60 percent this year, after plunging more than $100 in five months at the end of 2008 as the global recession curbed demand for fuel.

Oil futures rose above $71 a barrel yesterday for the first time in seven months, and traded at $71.18 as of 9:14 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC had in the wake of the record oil plunge noted that its revenue had been adversely affected, a development which prompted members countries to set back 35 of the 150 projects due to come on line in the next few years to expand supply. OPEC predicted stronger demand as it decided May 28 in Vienna to keep production quotas unchanged. OPEC agreed at three meetings last year that the 11 members with production quotas would reduce output by 4.2 million barrels a day.

OPEC Secretary General, Abdalla El-Badri , had stated that falling prices of crude oil would not only affect investments in both the upstream and downstream, but will delay future investments.
He raised fears that if the present situation does not change, it will lead to cancellation of future investments and automatically affect oil supply to the market.Following the recent price rally, OPEC at its May 28 meeting agreed to leave outputs at their present levels. Lead producer, Saudi Arabia had predicted that oil prices would likely rise to around $75 a barrel by the end of the year on the back of growing demand in Asia .

OPEC President, Angola ’s Oil Minister, Botelho de Vasconcelos had noted that oil should be between $70 and $75 a barrel to cover the costs of production.OPEC’s Director of Research, Hasan Qabazard , had at an Energy conference a fortnight ago expressed fears that oil prices could fall again because fundamentals were still weak.The OPEC scribe had noted that oil markets were still weak, pointing out that the current price “rally may be unsustainable in the short term because the “rally is driven by funds rather than fundamentals”.  However, United States investment bank, Goldman Sachs had stated that a potential economic rebound alongside production cuts by the OPEC could prop up price to $85 a barrel by the end of the year and $95 a barrel by the end of 2010.

TransportGooru Musing:

1.  The power of the cartel and its influence in manging the oil prices can only be countered with sustained investments world over in alternative fuel technologies such as electric vehicles ( like in US, Japan and Europe) and hydrogen technology (Norway has a solid lead here).

2.  The developing economies are going to have a tougher time in this round compared against the previous years, especially with the recession still showing its strong grip in many countries.  Especially, for China and India high oil prices can be crippling as they are battling to out of the recession.

3.  Speculative trading in the markets should be reined in (a very hard to execute.  Period.

4. Above all, the only real sense of control remaining for ordinary people against this oil mafia is to simply repeat what they did in 2008 – stop driving unless it is really, really necessary.  If there is a transit alternative, park the damn car and take the bus or train.   Try and find if you have a carpool option available in your city.  It might be ridiculous to think about this “shun your car” as an option here. But the secret lies in the “power of one” –  as an individual your contribution might be negligible but if done effectively in every community it can make a serious impact.

Toyota reports worst annual loss ever; warns of deeper plunge into the red this year

May 8, 2009 at 9:17 am

 (Source:  BBC & NYTIMES)

Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker, has made its worst annual loss as the global economic downturn has hit demand for its vehicles.  The Japanese company said it made a net loss of 436.94bn yen ($4.4bn; £2.9bn) in the year to 31 March, compared with a record profit the year before.

Toyota said expected to make a bigger loss in the current financial year.  Like many of its rivals, Toyota has cut production, including at its UK plants, as sales have declined. Toyota also blamed the loss on high raw materials prices and a strong yen, which makes its cars more expensive overseas.   “Both revenues and profits declined severely during this period,” said Toyota president Katsuaki Watanabe. He said the loss “was a consequence of the significant deterioration in vehicle sales, particularly in the US and Europe”.

Toyota said it expected to make a net loss of 550bn yen ($5.5bn; £3.7bn) in the financial year ending in March 2010.

Analysts say Toyota has strong cash reserves, and is far from the bankruptcy that has claimed the American carmaker Chrysler and that threatens General Motors. Despite a $15.4 billion infusion in U.S. government loans, General Motors burned through about $10 billion in the first quarter, driving its cash reserves down to a bare minimum and putting it on the brink of collapse.

Still, Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, on Friday lowered its long-term credit rating on Toyota a notch to AA, the third-highest rating, and gave a “negative” outlook for the company.

“Toyota maintains a minimal financial risk profile, characterized by a strong capital structure with massive liquidity,” Standard & Poor’s said in a statement. But with auto demand forecast to remain sluggish into 2010, Toyota will likely struggle before it can stage a recovery, Standard & Poor’s said.

Toyota’s latest forecast paints a grim picture for the year ahead. Toyota has been hit hard in its biggest market, the United States, where sales have plunged and show few signs of recovering.

In April, Toyota sold 126,540 cars in the United States — a 42 percent drop from a year earlier — slipping behind Ford Motor, which sold almost 130,000 cars.

Toyota has also suffered double-digit percentage drops in Japan as well as in China, where it is losing out to rivals with a wider lineup of smaller cars that have surged in popularity.

Toyota sold 7.56 million vehicles in fiscal 2008, down from 8.91 million units in its blockbuster 2007.

The company has so far held off from laying off permanent workers, who enjoy lifetime employment guarantees. Toyota says that guarantee is a key part of its “kaizen” management principle, in which workers are required to constantly suggest ways to be more productive. But some analysts question how long Toyota can hold off from deeper cuts.

Toyota is counting on its third-generation Prius hybrid, which will be unveiled later this month in Japan, to buoy sales. But the automaker faces stiff competition from its Japanese rival, Honda Motor, whose low-cost Insight hybrid is expected to eat into Toyota’s market share.

In a filing with the Japanese Finance Ministry, it indicated it may sell as many as ¥700 billion in bonds in the next two years, Bloomberg news reported.

The automaker is also rallying around its iconic founding family, tapping Akio Toyoda, the company founder’s grandson, to replace Mr. Watanabe next month. Mr. Toyoda has said he will focus on “green” technology like hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles to bring about a long-term recovery.

The automaker could also benefit from Japanese government stimulus efforts.

Last month, officials unveiled a so-called cash-for clunkers program under which car owners who upgrade to “green” vehicles from cars that are at least 13 years old will receive government subsidies.

Pew Research Center survey shows Americans’ undying love affair with cars; ranks cars above all else among list of necessities; but cutting back on driving

May 7, 2009 at 12:10 am

(Source: TOLLROADSnews)

Americans are driving less because of the recession but a survey by the Pew Research Center show they still rank a car as the number one necessity of modern life.  Driving less and eliminating “unnecessary” car trips has been one of the leading ways people say they save money, according to the poll (see bottom of this report.) Asked to say whether an item is a necessity or a luxury 88% say a car is a necessity compared to:

  • 66% for a clothes dryer; 
  • 54% home airconditioning
  • 52% TV
  • 50% home computer
  • 49% cell phone
  • less for other items

The Pew Center opinion pollers describe the automobile as the “ultimate survivor.”    “It’s been around for nearly a century, but in good times or bad, it retains its pride of place at the top of America’s list of everyday necessities.”  The survey was conducted April 2-8 2009 with a sample of 1003 persons. 

Click here to access/download the survey report.  Here is a related article published on Transportgooru reflecting a significant decline in the vehicle miles traveled across the US, somehow validates the data on the above image (“Is there anything else that you have done to save money during the recession”?)

Americans Driving Less- Temporary, or Permanent? – Esquire’s Nate Silver wonders if we are near the end of car culture

Americans still driving around too much? Not really, says USDOT: Decline In American Driving Still Evident

US transport shows speed, scope of economic slide

March 7, 2009 at 12:19 am

(Source: Reuters

 This is ugly.For a picture of how rapid and steep the decline in U.S. manufacturing and retail sales has been in this recession, there are few better sectors to look at than transport.

Freight volumes — everything from raw materials to durable goods — have plummeted virtually across the board, making forecasting demand near impossible.

“We’ve downgraded our forecasts several times already this year — and it’s only March,” said John Levine, president of Pinsly Railroad Co, which owns short-line railroads in Florida, Massachusetts and Arkansas. “Business has fallen off in a way that none of us have seen.”

To weather the slump, Pinsly has cut back hours for workers so all of its 150 employees are still working, he added.

According to data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), rail carload traffic for the first two months of 2009 was down 15.8 percent.

Historical data shows the drop in U.S. manufacturing activity eclipses the recessions of the 1980s and 1970s and in terms of speed and scale it is comparable with — but not as bad as — the Great Depression before World War Two.

Click here to read the entire article.